Where next for Canelo?
QUICK THOUGHTS: Now the master of his own destiny, boxing’s top star has the world at his feet
Welcome to Double Dutch Boxing. In this bonus edition of the newsletter, some quick thoughts reflecting on the huge event in Texas last weekend and examining what might be on Canelo’s agenda going forward.
If you’re here for the first time, you can subscribe below to receive every edition direct to your inbox. If you like what you read, sharing is massively appreciated, and you can get in touch by replying to this email. Thank you for reading.
The Alvarez backlog: Undisputed and beyond
So Canelo Alvarez passed the intriguing test posed by Billy Joe Saunders in the biggest fight of the year so far. Saturday night (or Sunday morning over in the UK) also saw him reaffirm his position as the undoubted top star in the sport and the face of world boxing, whilst breaking attendance records and grabbing another world title in the super middleweight division in the process.
Although the fight was pretty close while it lasted, Canelo had very little to fear at any stage of the bout and was in fact up on all three judge's cards at the time it ended. There was always an ominous sense of inevitability that Alvarez could up the tempo and punishment level once he had figured out his opponent, as he gradually closed the distance and began to land cleaner and heavier shots. The inevitable happened in a frenetic 8th round, with Canelo connecting with the uppercut which sealed the deal. Saunders’ corner pulled their man out at the end of the round, with Billy Joe needing surgery for multiple fractures of his eye socket. You do not play boxing.
Canelo is not wasting a moment in his quest for all-time great status. He has now fought three times in less than six months, which is unheard of in the modern era at the elite level, and wants to claim undisputed status in the super middleweight division before the year is out.
Alvarez has also managed to maneuver himself into a position of almost total power. Not only is he the fighter with the most drawing power in the sport, but he is also a free agent after leaving former promoter Golden Boy last year. He can fight anywhere, against pretty much whoever he fancies. Although Canelo has said he wants to maintain a working relationship with Matchroom Boxing, even Eddie Hearn has admitted that the Mexican superstar - and his outstanding trainer Eddy Reynoso - calls the shots. AJ vs Fury might be the biggest single bout to be made in the sport, but Saul could create a supershow fighting pretty much anyone at this stage. It’s Canelo’s world now, we just live in it.
Canelo says that he thinks he has up to seven more years in the sport. For the bank managers of his future opponents, this is excellent news. For any fighters who have serious aspirations of a world title in or around 168 pounds, less so. But where is he headed next, both imminently and longer-term? That is, once he has celebrated with a spot of golf accompanied by his own personal Mariachi band of course…
The next move is an obvious one. Canelo holds the WBC, WBA (Super), WBO and Ring Magazine super middleweight titles, with the only version remaining - the IBF belt - currently held by someone else, the American Caleb Plant. Canelo himself said post-fight this would be his preferred direction of travel - “I’m coming, my friend!” - as he aims to become Mexico’s first undisputed 168 pound world champion in any weight class. This fight SHOULD happen next, but as I have written previously boxing = chaos, so there are political obstacles to navigate.
‘Sweethands’ Plant fights under the Premier Boxing Champions umbrella, who have TV deals with FOX and Showtime in the States. Canelo has been fighting on cards promoted by Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom, shows which are broadcast on DAZN. Although Canelo is technically a free agent now, he has never fought for PBC before, and they tend to prefer to promote fights between boxers within their own ecosystem. There is also no chance he is signing long-term with PBC.
The options for this fight to go ahead are as follows…
Canelo signs a short-term deal to face Plant for the undisputed super middleweight title on FOX/Showtime pay-per-view
Plant and PBC take an offer for Matchroom to promote the fight on DAZN instead, whether negotiated or delivered through closed bids
Both feasible, but both will require deals to happen which are not in place currently. Fighters advised by Plant’s manager and PBC string-puller Al Haymon have turned down career-high paydays to defend their belts on other promoters’ events in the past, and even given up their world titles rather than go ahead with fights when directed to do so. Canelo brings more money and attention than any other fighter in the sport though, and Caleb has stated he wants the bout next, so the smart money has to be on the undisputed super middleweight showdown happening, most likely in September. He’s a skilled fighter, but has Plant really done anything in his career in preparation for entering the Alvarez cauldron? I’m not so sure.
Which direction will Canelo go in after that? Or, perhaps, next, if the Plant fight doesn’t materialise for some reason. Everyone in boxing anywhere near 168 pounds is jockeying for position in the race to win the Canelo lottery.
Demetrius Andrade, the current WBO middleweight champion, wore a delightful ensemble to the fight last Saturday night and even crashed Canelo’s post-fight press conference in an attempt to drop his name in the central thrust of the debate going forward…
Andrade is promoted by Matchroom and therefore fights on DAZN, so this could theoretically be made pretty easily. ‘Boo Boo’ has said he is ready, willing and able to move up in weight. He’s not a massive star, but he is an undefeated live contender who has been making noise for a big opportunity for years now. Canelo has previously said he might need to up his competition before he can join the waiting list though.
The biggest potential revenue-driver on the Canelo calendar is STILL probably the trilogy fight with Gennady Golovkin. I’ve covered their previous two encounters when I looked at the possible legacy of Triple G. Whatever the scorecards of the judges were or weren’t, both fights featuring outstanding action and GGG offered Canelo more difficulties than most of his more recent opponents combined. Gennady is still a considerable name in the sport, and there is a sense of unfinished business amongst some fans.
Alvarez has made it clear that the third fight would have to be at 168 pounds though, and GGG is a career middleweight. He has also recently turned 39 years old and is in the twilight of his time in the sport, whereas Canelo is at his absolute peak. Of course, history shows us that sometimes shocks can happen when the odds are against the veteran, but Golovkin was past his absolute athletic peak for the first fight, let alone whenever the trilogy bout could feasibly be delivered. IBF middleweight champ Triple G is apparently set on aiming for a unification fight with Ryoto Murata, who holds the WBA (Super) middleweight title, in December; this is a fight which his management has been interested in for a while, and one which - even at this point - he should win. So I honestly think Canelo-GGG III happening is unlikely. Money speaks volumes in boxing though, so never say never.
There are others at middleweight who have stated they would be happy to move up in weight to take on the challenge. Jermall Charlo has been calling out Canelo at every feasible opportunity and has claimed he would happily drop his WBC middleweight title to facilitate the fight happening. Again, PBC politics may prove a stumbling block, but this does feel like a clash which is inevitable at some stage, especially if Alvarez remains at 168 pounds longer-term.
Jamie Munguia, current middleweight contender and former WBO light middleweight champion, thinks a fight for him with Canelo ”has to happen” at some stage. An all-Mexican clash could absolutely light up Cinco de Mayo one year and prove a huge money-spinner, and Munguia has impressed across his spotless 36-fight record so far. He is a way off being at the top of the middleweight division though before thinking about moving up, and would become a bigger star in the process, so I think this one will be marinating for a little while longer.
Canelo has also stated that he would love to fight at least once in the UK before his career is over. Having already defeated seven British fighters, it would make sense for this to happen under the Matchroom banner and against a fighter from the same homeland. On this basis, Chris Eubank Jr might well end up being in line for a fight against Alvarez in the not-too-distant future, especially if he can finally make some waves this year as both he and his new promoter Kalle Sauerland have stated is their objective for 2021. Despite some questioning his career so far, Eubank is a big name in the UK still, has competed at super middleweight so could move up if needed, with even an agreement at a catchweight possible. There aren’t actually many bigger fights for Canelo left if he does need to find a British dance partner in the future. After his £10k bet on the fight came in at the weekend, Eubank reached out to make it clear he was keen…
David Benavidez looked like he was on the verge of becoming a major star at super middleweight a few years back, before his career was derailed by testing positive for cocaine in 2018 and then losing his world title on the scales when he couldn’t make weight. A two-time WBC 168 pound champion, he has been looking to rebuild his reputation and doesn’t want Canelo to leave the division without fighting him. Benavidez is a hard punching switch-hitter with more power than Canelo’s other recent challenges at the weight, having stopped 21 of his 24 opponents. At just 24 years old, he could prove a difficult assignment for the Mexican megastar down the road. Benavidez also has a long-standing rivalry with Canelo's next target, with the winner taking on Alvarez. In an ideal world, Plant-Benavidez would have been served up first - but Caleb has his eyes firmly on the Canelo jackpot for now.
With Canelo, we should expect the unexpected. He has thrown up a few curveballs in the past, and if and when he does achieve his undisputed ambition, don’t be surprised if he serves up one or two more.
Alvarez is a former world champion at light heavyweight, having knocked out Sergey Kovalev to win the WBO crown in 2019, so another move up in the future, for the right opponent, is a distinct possibility.
One of the most talented fighters in the game, current WBA (Super) light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol has stated that he would love to fight Canelo - “I want to fight Canelo for history, I have enough money”, he has previously noted. Although he campaigns at the higher weight class, he has stated that he could easily make super middleweight as well if required. A fighter who utilises his outstanding boxing skills rather than relying on immense power, I’m a huge Bivol advocate and feel that he has a very underrated resume. Despite fighting most of the best fighters in his division, Bivol has never come close to being defeated and seems to exceed himself against stronger opponents. He would of course need to do this to beat Saul, but it would be fascinating to see him attempt it whatever the result.
One fighter who Bivol sadly has not yet faced is Artur Beterbiev, the fearsome 175 pound kingpin and current WBC and IBF light heavyweight champion. Canelo moving back up to take on the Russian KO king might interest him at some point, but would it be a step too far for Alvarez against the bigger man? Beterbiev is certainly up for it, though he is now 36 years of age and with Alvarez seemingly tied up with more pressing matters, for the time being, I don’t necessarily see this bout ending up on the slate.
Looking at possibilities from another perspective, Errol Spence Jr - current unified welterweight champion - could be another option if he were able to move up successfully. Canelo says this fight is possible, perhaps at a catchweight, and it would clearly be a huge event. It would also be an immense task for Spence to go up the weights and offer a real threat, but it would undeniably captivate the boxing world. The same goes for Terence Crawford. First though, I’d love to see Spence and Crawford just fight each other. Please.
Would any of the fighters mentioned, or perhaps someone else I haven’t included in my rundown, be able to knock Canelo off his perch in this kind of form? Perhaps, perhaps not. His name is being used by almost everyone in boxing seemingly as they look to bask in the reflected glory of the Alvarez juggernaut. One thing is for certain though - having a genuine superstar at their absolute peak ready to take on all comers doesn’t come around too often for boxing fans, and it’s great news for the sport. It will be fascinating to see which course he chooses to plot in the sport.
MORE FROM DOUBLE DUTCH BOXING…
Wasserman: Boxing's new promotional superpower?
Boxing's chaos theory: The fundamental disorder at the heart of the sport
Don't believe the hype: Examining the concept of the hype job in boxing